Monthly Market Commentary
As at 30 November 2025
Economic review
Australia
Strong wage growth dampens expectations for interest rate cuts
The RBA held interest rates steady at 3.60% at their November meeting, in line with market expectations, and raised its economic growth forecast for 2026.
Australian wage growth held steady at 3.4% in Q3 2025, supporting the RBA’s decision not to cut interest rates in November.
Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.3% in October, driven by a stronger than expected gain of 42,200 jobs (vs. 14,900 forecast), with the steady participation rate confirming that the decline was due to robust employment growth.
Australia’s monthly CPI for October rose to 3.8% YoY from 3.6%, with trimmed mean CPI increasing to 3.3%. This marked the first full release of the monthly CPI, while the quarterly CPI will continue to be published for at least the next 18 months.
Australian Westpac consumer confidence rose to 103.8 in November from 91.1, the highest level in four years, indicating that consumers are now more optimistic than pessimistic about the economy. This reflected positive wage growth, and the RBA’s decision to pause interest rates did not unsettle consumers.
International
US Government shutdown ends after 44 days
The US Government shutdown ended after 44 days, the longest since 1980. Congress approved funding for military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture and Congress itself through the end of 2026, and for the rest of the Government through to the end of January 2026.
US payrolls data for September, delayed by the Government shutdown, showed job gains of 119,000, well above expectations of 51,000. However, prior months were revised down by a net 33,000, with August lowered to -4,000, continuing this year’s trend of downward revisions.
The US proposed a 28-point Ukraine peace plan with Russia, requiring Ukraine to cede territory, avoid NATO, and limit its military. In return, Russia must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, and $100 billion of Russia’s frozen assets would fund Ukraine’s rebuilding, with the US receiving half the investment profits.
The UK autumn budget raised fiscal headroom from £9.9bn to £21.7bn, reaffirming fiscal rules. However, spending is concentrated in the near term, while most tax increases are delayed. The main tax increases come from extending the freeze on income tax thresholds, and from changes to salary sacrifice schemes.
Market Review
US corporate earnings season ends strongly
International shares (hedged) rose 0.3% in November; supported by the US Q3 2025 earnings season, which delivered 13.4% YoY earnings growth. Nvidia, the largest stock in the S&P 500, also reported strong earnings.
Healthcare was the best performing sector in November, gaining 8.1%, as the pharmaceutical shares performed strongly following solid earnings reports.
The information technology (IT) sector was the worst performing sector for the month, down -4.7%, even though IT companies reported strong earnings. Given that the IT sector had risen almost 30% over the year to November, a correction was not unexpected.
Emerging Market shares fell -2.6% for the month.
Australian shares underperformed international shares for a further month
Australian shares fell -2.6%, as strong labour market data suggested that future interest rate cuts in Australia may not eventuate.
In line with the global theme, healthcare was the best performing sector, rising 1.7% for the month, closely followed by materials, which gained 1.6%.
Information technology was the largest detractor for the second consecutive month, down -10.9%, reflecting high sector valuations.
Australian listed property fell in line with the broader index
Australian listed property declined -3.7% in November, in line with the broader share market. Although inflation data came in higher, this reduced the risk of interest rates further weighing on listed property valuations.
Australian government bonds were marginally lower in November
Australian government bonds were down -0.9%, as yields climbed significantly higher over the month.
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